The 2026 Grammy ceremony is officially a few sleeps away and so is the yearly discourse that comes with it. A handful of names, including all the Best New Artist nominees, have been confirmed as performers — with even more expected to be announced leading up to the show. After such a massive pop-flooded ceremony in 2025, this year’s edition brings a less pop-heavy race but with a few key players that might turn the tables come Sunday. Pop Base predicts the winners for some of the most anticipated categories in Pop and — of course — the General Field.

Best Pop Vocal Album

Will win: Mayhem by Lady Gaga

2025 resulted in one of Lady Gaga’s most fruitful years — she released her seventh studio album Mayhem which was preceded by a chart-topping (and Grammy-winning) collaboration with Bruno Mars, Die With A Smile, and the jazz concept record Harlequin. Despite it not being a pop-dominated year, Mother Monster provided one of the biggest musical moments and it is unlikely academy voters will overlook her presence in this category. Another slight advantage for Gaga is that she also has the attention of another branch of voters who clearly respect her work: the Jazz community who nominated Harlequin.

Best Pop Solo Performance

Will win: Manchild by Sabrina Carpenter

First of all, this award in recent years has had a streak of going to the biggest hit of the category — going to Sabrina’s own Espresso last year. The other contenders: Daisies, The Subway, Disease and Messy did not seem to possess the same momentum as the Man’s Best Friend lead single. It was one of the songs that defined pop this year and led the way for the blockbuster follow-up to Short n’ Sweet. It seems safe to assume this is the route voters will take.

Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

Will win: APT by Rosé & Bruno Mars

Realistically, this category is helmed by two of the night’s strongest contenders across the board: APT and Golden from KPop Demon Hunters. The former feels like the obvious winner here, especially with this category’s history of leaning more towards collaborations between two powerhouses — which Rosé and Bruno fit perfectly. The academy also loves some Bruno Mars (see this 2022 winning stat), so it feels like a reach to assume they won’t go for one of the year’s biggest hits featuring him. Golden, on the other hand, feels like a stronger contender in the General Field.

Best Dance Pop Recording

Will win: Abracadabra by Lady Gaga

The second single off Mayhem feels like a shoe-in here and it’s probably the easiest prediction on the entire list. The single premiered at last year’s Grammys and brought back a familiar but renewed Gaga, which was met with praise and heightened anticipation for the seventh installment of her discography. Mayhem would not be what it is without this centerpiece and we expect that praise to carry on to the Grammy ballots.

Record of the Year

Will win: luther by Kendrick Lamar & SZA

The collaboration off Kendrick Lamar’s surprise album GNX feels too big to be overlooked in the main categories on Sunday. Upon release, it dominated radio and charts — and genuinely feels like the Record of the Year. The only real threat here seems to be APT, but on paper, luther still feels like the more likely pick for voters. It would mark Kendrick’s second consecutive win in the category after the Not Like Us sweep last year.

Song of the Year

Will win: Golden by HUNTR/X

Golden would mark a historic first for K-Pop if it wins this Sunday. It’s obviously surrounded by some of the biggest highlights of 2025, but in the context of the category, it easily stands out as the most exciting pick for voters. A win for the track, especially for the biggest songwriting award of the night, would showcase just how much K-Pop has truly broken into the Western music scene. Out of the eight nominees here, only a few have had a cultural moment that even holds a candle to the phenomenon that was KPop Demon Hunters — a moment that is bound to cap off with an Oscar win in March as well.

Best New Artist

Will win: Leon Thomas

This award is Leon Thomas’ to lose. Every single one of this year’s Best New Artist nominees have had their own breakthrough moment but none have felt as overdue as Thomas with MUTT, which feels like a rise years in the making. It also doesn’t hurt his chances that voters are already familiar with him from his songwriting and production credits on previous Grammy-acknowledged projects (including a win for SZA’s Snooze).

Album of the Year

Will win: DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS by Bad Bunny

A win by a Latin album in the most coveted category of the night would go down as one of the most compelling moments in recent Grammy memory, especially in the current political climate brought by the Trump administration. Bad Bunny hasn’t shied away from becoming political with this record, notably mimicking Trump’s voice to speak out against his own immigration policies in the video for NUEVAYoL. With weeks away from a Super Bowl performance, it would not only be a crowning moment for Bad Bunny, but also for a genre that has long been overlooked in the General Field.

Further clearing the path to victory for DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS is the fact that, this year, the Recording Academy invited all voters of the Latin Grammys to join the main awards as well: “For the first time ever, invitations were extended to all Latin Recording Academy Voters, helping to build a more globally representative voting body.”